Why Good Expat Financial Planning Is About Positioning, Not Predictions

One of the most persistent myths in expat financial planning is that the quality of a plan depends on how accurately it predicts the future. Market forecasts, interest rate expectations, inflation assumptions, and return projections are often treated as the foundation of good advice.

For expats, this way of thinking is particularly dangerous.

Not because predictions are wrong, everyone knows markets are unpredictable, but because focusing on forecasts distracts from what actually determines outcomes. Over time, it is not prediction that separates good plans from bad ones, but rather how well those plans are positioned to cope when reality unfolds differently from expectations.

This distinction is more important than ever, particularly for individuals whose lives, incomes, assets, and tax exposure span multiple countries.

Why Forecast-Led Planning Fails Expats More Than Anyone Else

Most expats intellectually understand that market forecasts are unreliable. Very few genuinely believe that anyone can consistently predict the next recession, rally, or policy shift.

And yet, many expat financial decisions are still driven by implicit predictions.

• Assumptions that markets will “sort themselves out over time”.

• Beliefs that retirement is far enough away to delay structural decisions.

• Confidence that tax issues can be dealt with later, once plans feel clearer.

None of these feels like a forecast when it is made. They feel like common sense.

In reality, each one embeds a prediction about how long favourable conditions will last, how flexible future choices will remain, and how forgiving systems will be when plans eventually need to change.

When those predictions fail, the cost is rarely immediate. It appears later, when options are narrower, and consequences are harder to reverse.

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” - Peter Drucker.

What “Positioning” Actually Means in Real Expat Financial Planning

Positioning is often talked about vaguely, which makes it easy to misunderstand.

In proper expat financial planning, positioning has very little to do with guessing outcomes and everything to do with preparing for multiple plausible futures without needing to be right about which one occurs.

For expats, that means positioning across three dimensions simultaneously.

First, positioning across time. This involves understanding not only long-term growth but also when decisions may be forced, when capital may need to be accessed, and how sequencing affects tax and flexibility.

Second, positioning across jurisdictions. Expats rarely remain in a single tax or legal environment indefinitely. Good positioning acknowledges that residency changes, interpretation rules tighten, and tax systems assess behaviour retrospectively rather than sympathetically.

Third, positioning for interpretation. Increasing transparency means decisions are no longer viewed in isolation. They are connected across years, accounts, and life stages. A plan that makes sense in the moment can look very different when assessed later.

None of these can be solved by better forecasts.

Why Being “Roughly Right” Is No Longer Good Enough

Traditional financial advice often relied on being approximately correct over long periods. If returns averaged out and markets eventually recovered, most mistakes were forgiven by time.

That margin for error has narrowed.

Today, outcomes are increasingly shaped by timing, sequencing, and structure rather than headline returns. Two expats can hold similar portfolios, earn similar incomes, and make broadly sensible decisions, yet end up in materially different positions years later.

The difference is rarely that one predicted markets better.

It is that one plan was positioned to absorb change without forcing decisions at the wrong time, while the other was not.

This is why focusing on performance alone is misleading.

Performance is visible. Positioning is not, until it is tested.

Why Expats Are Especially Vulnerable to Getting This Wrong

Living in a tax-free or low-tax environment creates a subtle distortion.

When income and gains are not currently taxed, it is easy to underestimate the importance of structure.

Decisions feel reversible. Complexity feels unnecessary. Waiting feels harmless.

But this is precisely when positioning should be done, because once residency changes or income is drawn, many of the most effective options are no longer available.

Expats often discover this too late, not because they ignored advice, but because the advice they received focused on products or performance rather than structural resilience.

At that point, the problem is no longer how to optimise the plan, but how to contain damage.

Why Good Planning Feels Boring Until It Saves You

One reason positioning is undervalued is that it rarely feels exciting.

Forecasts create narratives. Positioning creates constraints.

Good planning often involves doing things earlier than feels necessary, resisting the temptation to simplify too far, and building flexibility that may never be used. None of this generates short-term validation.

“You can’t predict, but you can prepare.” - Howard Marks

But when markets shift, tax rules tighten, or life accelerates faster than expected, positioned plans behave very differently. They absorb stress instead of amplifying it.

This is not luck. It is designed.

What Professional Advice Is Actually Supposed to Do

High-quality financial advice tailored to you is not about predicting markets or selecting clever investments.

Its real purpose is to help clients avoid being forced into decisions at the worst possible moment, under the least favourable conditions, with the fewest remaining options.

That requires judgment and experience, not models.

It requires experience across jurisdictions, not just product knowledge.

It requires understanding how plans behave when assumptions fail, not just when charts appear smooth.

This is why many capable DIY investors still end up disappointed. Not because they lacked intelligence or discipline, but because they underestimated how unforgiving poorly positioned plans become over time.

Why This Conversation Matters Now, Not Later

Positioning cannot be fixed quickly. It is built gradually while flexibility remains.

Once capital is committed, residency changes, or income is required, the scope for meaningful improvement often shrinks dramatically. At that point, advice becomes reactive rather than strategic.

The most effective planning conversations occur before urgency arises, when decisions can still be shaped rather than managed.

If your current plan relies on conditions continuing broadly as they have, or assumes you will address complexity once it becomes unavoidable, it may already be doing more predicting than positioning.

That is not a failure. It is simply a signal that the plan warrants a more thorough review.

If you want to understand whether your expat financial planning is genuinely positioned for change, rather than quietly betting on stability, this is best explored in conversation rather than in a spreadsheet.

Start with a conversation. Book a discovery call with My Intelligent Investor and get clear on where you stand, what’s changing, and what you can do about it. Let’s build a strategy that turns market complexity into opportunity.

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