Expat Financial Planning in 2026: What to Think About Before You Do Anything

January is where expats often do the most damage to otherwise sensible plans, not because they are reckless, but because they act quickly on incomplete information.

There’s a line often attributed to Abraham Lincoln that captures the point perfectly:

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.” 

In expat financial planning, “sharpening the axe” is the unglamorous work you do before you move money, change strategy, consolidate accounts, or decide that next year will be different.

It means pressure-testing your assumptions, checking which tax rules you are about to re-enter, and ensuring your wealth structure aligns with the life you are actually building, not the one you hope will happen.

Why January Expat Financial Planning Decisions Are Riskier Than They Feel

January decisions feel controlled because they are deliberate.

There is no market crash forcing your hand. No tax deadline looming tomorrow. No urgent letter demanding a response. That lack of pressure creates confidence, which is precisely why actions taken in January often avoid deeper scrutiny.

What is often overlooked is that many financial decisions are not easily reversible. Once assets are moved, wrappers chosen, income strategies started, or portfolios reshaped, the flexibility to adapt later quietly narrows.

This matters more for expats because your future is rarely linear. Residency changes, tax exposure evolves, currencies shift, and life events compress timelines faster than expected. A decision that seems sensible today can become restrictive under different assumptions.

The Mistake Most Expats Make Before Reviewing Anything

Most people start a new year by reviewing performance.

• How did the portfolio do?

• Which funds worked?

• Which assets disappointed?

• Which returns met expectations?

Performance is visible, so it becomes the default starting point.

The problem is that performance rarely tells you whether a plan still works. It only tells you what happened under last year’s conditions. A proper review starts elsewhere, with structure, timing, and dependency.

Before you look at returns, you need to understand what your plan requires to succeed.

What Your Plan Is Quietly Dependent On

Every financial plan has hidden dependencies, even well-constructed ones.

Some plans depend on markets delivering above-average returns early in retirement, despite wanting to Retire With Confidence. Others depend on tax rules remaining broadly stable. Some rely on income sources continuing uninterrupted, or on repatriation happening later rather than sooner.

These dependencies are rarely written down, but they are very real.

A plan does not need to fail completely to fall short. It simply needs one or two assumptions to drift out of line at the wrong moment. That is often enough to force compromises that were never intended.

If your plan only works when markets behave nicely, tax policy remains benign, and timelines unfold exactly as expected, then it is more fragile than it appears.

Why Doing Nothing Is Still a Decision

Many expats approach January with a quieter mindset.

They are not rushing to change anything. They are waiting. Waiting for clarity. Waiting for markets to settle. Waiting for the next life move to become more defined.

Waiting feels cautious, but it is not neutral.

Unreviewed structures carry forward old assumptions. Outdated tax positioning remains exposed. Portfolios drift in risk profile without being consciously adjusted. Liquidity decisions get deferred until they become urgent.

Inertia has consequences, particularly when circumstances evolve faster than plans do.

The Difference Between Review and Repositioning

A meaningful review is not a checklist exercise.

It does not stop at asset allocation or provider comparison. It asks whether the plan still aligns with how your life is actually unfolding, rather than how it was expected to unfold when the strategy was first put in place.

Repositioning is different from reacting. It is not about predicting markets or anticipating policy changes. It is about improving resilience, flexibility, and optionality before those pressures arrive.

That distinction matters. Reaction forces compromise. Repositioning preserves choice.

Why 2026 Requires a Slower Start

The temptation in early 2026 will be to respond to what just happened in 2025.

Policy changes. Market narratives. Budget headlines. Performance dispersion. All of these will create noise that encourages action.

The smarter move for most expats is to slow down before committing to anything new. That pause creates space to assess whether your existing structures remain appropriate, whether your tax exposure aligns with your likely future residency, and whether your income strategy is robust enough to withstand less favourable conditions.

Slowing down does not mean standing still. It means choosing positioning over momentum.

What to Get Clear On Before Making Any Changes

Before you adjust a portfolio, move assets, or commit to a new structure, there are a few questions that deserve careful attention.

• How dependent is your plan on markets delivering strong returns at the exact moment income becomes essential?

• How exposed is your strategy to changes in tax treatment if residency shifts sooner than expected?

• How much flexibility do you retain if you need to adapt quickly rather than optimally?

• How many of your decisions are based on habit rather than intent?

These questions are rarely answered by dashboards or online tools. They require perspective, experience, and an understanding of how plans behave under stress, not just under favourable conditions.

The Value of Doing Less, Better

Good financial planning is not about constant optimisation.

It is about reducing the number of decisions you may later regret, while increasing the number of options available to you if circumstances change.

For expats, that often means resisting the urge to “tidy things up” in January without first understanding what flexibility you may be giving away. It means reviewing structures before performance, assumptions before allocation, and positioning before prediction.

That approach does not create dramatic short-term changes. It creates long-term confidence.

A More Useful Way to Start 2026

If there is one mindset shift worth making before doing anything else, it is this.

Do not ask what you should change this year. Ask what would cause your current plan to become uncomfortable if life does not unfold as expected.

The answer to that question usually reveals far more than another performance comparison ever could.

If you want help working through that process calmly, objectively, and without pressure to act prematurely, that conversation is often most valuable before the year gains momentum.

The best financial decisions are rarely rushed. They are positioned carefully, with full awareness of what they protect and what they pursue.

If you would like to explore whether your current plan is genuinely ready for 2026, or whether it is quietly carrying forward risks that deserve attention, that is a conversation worth having early.

Start with a conversation. Book a discovery call with My Intelligent Investor, and we will first map the quiet failure points, then decide what is worth changing and what is fine to leave as is.

Let's get clear on where you stand, what’s changing, and what you can do about it. Let’s build a strategy that turns market complexity into opportunity.

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